Trojans attempt to slay Golden Bears in Berkeley

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2007 - Berkeley, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In an attempt to salvage something from their trip to the Bay Area, the 25th-ranked USC Trojans will take on the California Golden Bears in Pac-10 play from Haas Pavilion this evening.

The Trojans joined the top-25 this past week and in their first defense of that national ranking, got routed by Stanford on Thursday, 65-50. The loss dropped USC to 15-6 overall and 5-3 in league play, two games out of first place.

The Golden Bears have lost two games in a row, including a 62-46 setback to third-ranked UCLA on Thursday. The loss dropped the Bears to an even 4-4 in Pac-10 play and 12-8 overall.

California holds a 124-113 edge in the all-time series with USC and registered a three-game sweep of the Trojans a season ago.

USC got abused by Stanford on Thursday, as the team got 19 shots blocked by the Cardinal in a 15-point loss. Nick Young led the charge offensively for the Trojans, finishing with 13 points. He was joined in double figures by Taj Gibson and Gabe Pruitt, who added 11 and 10 points, respectively. Poor shooting was the culprit in the loss, as USC shot a miserable .284 from the floor (19-of-67), including a .235 clip from behind the arc (4-of-17). This is not an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, so when the team is struggling to find its range, bad things will happen. On the year, USC is netting just 70.8 ppg, but makes up for it by allowing a mere 60.8. Young has been the top option at the offensive end, throwing down 17.0 ppg, Lodrick Stewart is next with 13.4 ppg, while the freshman Gibson has proved to be one of the Pac-10's most exciting youngsters, averaging a near double-double with 12.9 points and 9.0 rebounds per outing.

California has its own freshman phenom in the form of 6-10 Ryan Anderson. The talented forward/center leads the Golden Bears in scoring (17.1 ppg) and rebounding (8.8 rpg) and is converting nearly 50 percent of his shots on the year (.496). Ayinde Ubaka is a viable second option offensively at 14.0 ppg, but injuries have cost the team valuable scoring depth beyond that. To make matters worse, the team is without the services of Eric Vierneisel, who has stepped up of late with a key injury to DeVon Hardin (10.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg). Vierneisel injured his ankle in practice on Wednesday and won't return until next week. In the loss to UCLA, Cal shot just .367 from the floor and lost the battle on the boards, 36-25. Theo Robertson led the team on the scoreboard with 16 points. Anderson was on the only one to join him in double figures, finishing with 13 points, on 6-of-13 shooting.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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