Extra Point: Recruiting - A look back at the class of 2004

NCAA Football Betting Lines

02/21/2007 - Chattanooga, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Senseless. Useless. Waste of time. The list could go on and on, but the point remains the same. Theres nothing worse than trying to determine how 17 and 18-year-old athletes will progress over the next four or five years in college.

In many ways, writing the recruiting rankings article was my easiest task of the year. Take a look at press releases and websites like Scout and Rivals, find a few projected blue-chippers heading to FCS schools, and list those players without anyone being able to make a real argument about who should and should not be on the list.

But I put a stop to the rankings of players last year, instead just listing transfers or first-year players that were entering interesting situations (though Appalachian State quarterback Armanti Edwards was on that list, so chalk one up for me). I dont want to put a ranking on players Ive never seen in person or on tape, especially when most of those players wont even make a major impact for at least a few years and someone like Ricky Santos comes out of nowhere to win the top individual honor in FCS as a junior. I dont want to sit here in Philadelphia and say a quarterback from Mississippi who won the state title is better than the running back from South Carolina who runs a 4.4.

Why the change in philosophy? The proof is in the pudding when I look back at previous recruiting rankings and lists in my articles and in those of my predecessor, Tony Moss. Actually, this will just be a check on my Sportsbook Betting Lines co-worker and fellow new father, since the jury is still out on the classes of 2005 and 2006 that I tried to dissect in the past two seasons (or maybe I just want to convince myself that Im right for one more year).

A click on past articles at The Sportsbook Betting Lines shows a list of players from 2004 that were expected to do great things when they signed in early February. Were the recruiting analysts (including TSNs current NFL Editor) prophetic, or are my thoughts about the unpredictable process correct?

Lets take a look back at The Sportsbook Betting Liness rankings of the class of 2004, with players entering either their senior or junior year in the upcoming season. Players are listed with their 2004 rating. And maybe Ill lend Mr. Moss a pack of diapers or two for exposing the results of the rankings three years later.

No. 1 Levonte Barber, RB, Chattanooga - If youre wondering about Barbers success, just know that hes a Chattanooga running back that is not named Eldra Buckley. Barber played as a true freshman in 2004, but has moved to fullback and had just eight carries for 13 yards as a junior last year.

No. 2 Norris Smith, RB, Eastern Illinois - Smiths numbers in 2006 (651 yards, 6 TD) werent extraordinary, but theres reason to believe he can still live up to the high expectations. He has two seasons of eligibility left, and figures to take on a greater load in the Panther offense now that hes out of Vincent Webbs shadow.

No. 3 Vernon Wilder, LB, Florida A & M - Hes not a superstar, but Wilder has emerged as a relative "hit" from the top 10 list. He led the Rattler defense with 89 tackles as a junior in 2006, and notched 56 stops in 2005.

No. 4 Armand Cauthen, WR, Delaware - After redshirting in 2004, Cauthen made some impact with 16 receptions as a freshman in 2005. But the chance of emerging stopped there, as he was not on the Blue Hens roster in 2006.

No. 5 Antonio Miller, QB, Chattanooga - Miller showed early flashes of potential stardom as a true freshman in 2004, but its been all downhill from there for the quarterback that was rated as the 16th best dual-threat player in the nation by Rivals.com. He threw for three touchdown passes and 14 interceptions as the starter in 2005, and tossed four TDs and five INTs while splitting time with Matt Lopez last year.

No. 6 Jay Graber, QB Hofstra - Graber never saw the field at Hofstra before transferring to Division II Bryant, where he threw two passes last season.

No. 7 Juan Gamboa, K, Sacramento State - Gamboa suffered a quad injury and redshirted in 2004, and the No. 6 rated kicker in the nation by Rivals.com has been average in his first two campaigns. He connected on 6-12 field goals and 22-23 extra points as a freshman in 2005, and hit 9-12 kicks and 17-18 extra points last year.

No. 8 Liam OHagan, QB, Harvard - OHagan looked like a future star of this group after throwing for 2,005 yards and 15 touchdowns as a sophomore in 2005, but a suspension kept him out of the first five games of the 2006 campaign and he threw for only 649 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions.

No. 9 Cody Balogh, OL, Montana - Balogh has emerged as the star of the projected top recruits from the class of 2004. He was called into action as a true freshman in 2004 and started at right tackle in Montanas final three playoff games, with an appearance in the national championship game. He started all 12 games at left tackle in 2005, and kept getting better in 2006 with a first-team All-Big Sky selection and a third-team All-America nod from The Sportsbook Betting Lines.

No. 10 Bubba Bradley, K/P, Northern Arizona - You may know the names Paul Ernster and Rhian Madrid from the Lumberjacks kicking spots over the past two years, but Bradley was gone from the team after the 2004 season.

The synopsis of the 2004 class also included a list of future All-Conference performers, and the success rate three years later is even worse for that group. Of the 26 players listed, none have made an All-Conference team. The most recognizable name at this point is Georgia Southern running back Chris Covington, who led the Eagles with 824 yards and eight touchdowns a year ago.

Some of the players have already come and gone, while other prized recruits from the class of 2004 still have the time and opportunity to prove themselves. But dont be surprised if an unheralded walk-on or overlooked recruit makes just as much impact in the unpredictable crapshoot that is the FCS recruiting process.

MAKING 2007 EVEN TOUGHER TO PROJECT

Rating FBS transfers is usually a caveat to the impossibility of projecting players and classes on recruiting days. In the aforementioned 2004 recruiting class, quarterbacks Dustin Long (Sam Houston State), Ingle Martin (Furman) and Sonny Riccio (Delaware) all acquitted themselves well after earning high acclaim, and so did running backs Terry Jackson (Southern Illinois) and Elijah Brooks (William & Mary).

In 2005, Pierre Rembert (Illinois State), Travorous Bain (Hampton) and David Horne (Northern Iowa) all lived up to their billing and helped their teams to the playoffs after transferring from major FBS programs, while top junior college transfer Eldra Buckley (Chattanooga) exceeded his expectations. Last year a group of quarterbacks had an impact, with Montanas Josh Swogger leading his team to the semifinals and Montana States Jack Rolovich, Delawares Joe Flacco and Idaho States Matt Gutierrez also earning starting nods.

But the opportunity for FCS teams to replenish their roster with "quick-fix" transfers from FBS took a big hit in 2007. With NCAA legislation preventing FBS transfers from playing immediately in FCS unless they have two years of eligibility remaining, the number of high-impact newcomers dropped dramatically this season. Worries over the NCAAs Academic Progress Rate (APR) also contributed to the reluctance to take on a group of transfers and made the recruiting day revolve more around high school players and junior college transfers.

A FEW TRANSFERS TO FOLLOW

While there arent a ton of players coming in that appear ready to make a huge impact, there are some players that enter a key situation for the success of their team.

Take a look at five transfers to watch for the 2007 season (including two who spent most of 2006 on their current teams roster).

Five Transfers to Watch

Sam Houston State quarterback Rhett Bomar - Granted, Bomar found a spot on the Sam Houston State roster last year. But since he was ineligible to play in 2006, Bomar will make his first impact with the Bearkats this year. He threw for 2,018 yards and 10 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman with Oklahoma in 2005, and gives the Bearkats a huge leg up in a conference where consistent quarterback play was non-existent a year ago. The Bearkat defense also gets a boost from Chris Brown, a transfer defensive end from Texas.

Montana offensive lineman J.D. Quinn - Like Bomar, Quinn transferred from Oklahoma last season and will be eligible to step on the field this year. Montana finished dead last in the nation in sacks allowed, but that could change with Quinn on an offensive line that also includes All-American Cody Balogh and Colin Dow.

Southern Illinois running backs Larry Warner and Deji Abdul Karim - With Arkee Whitlock gone, the Saluki tradition of success in the running game under Jerry Kill could rely on these two junior college transfers with quality backgrounds. Warner ran for 1,237 yards and 12 touchdowns and was selected as a first-team All-American at Mississippi Gulf Coast CC, while Karim comes off two strong seasons at Northeast Oklahoma A & M. Both players figure to compete for carries along with incumbent John Randle.

Delaware defensive additions - The Blue Hens gave up 25.9 points and nearly 400 yards per game in 2006, and will get some help on the defensive side of the ball with three transfers. Former Notre Dame defensive lineman Ronald Talley is the biggest name. Talley was a part-time starter for the past two seasons and recorded 34 tackles and one sack before leaving the Irish program last year. Linebacker Johnathon Smith notched 74 tackles in his two seasons at Connecticut, and defensive back Marvin McKinnie had 11 interceptions in two seasons at Dean Junior College.

Georgia Southern running back Mike Hamilton - The Eagles have an offensive- minded head coach in Chris Hatcher, and he should get plenty of production from Hamilton. The Oklahoma State transfer ran for 546 yards and four touchdowns last year and earned Big 12 Conference Offensive Newcomer of the Year honors with 961 rushing yards as a freshman in 2005.

10 TEAMS TO WATCH

Predicting the top recruiting classes is even more trying than going through the top players, so what follows is NOT a list of the top 10 classes of the year. Rather, take a look at 10 teams that, for one reason or another, need production from this years recruiting class in 2007 and beyond.

Missouri State - The Bears took their lumps, to the tune of a 2-9 overall record, in the first year of the Terry Allen era. It might not get that much better immediately, but reinforcements come this year with 24 first-year players and six transfers in a massive 2007 recruiting class. If the group helps Missouri State become a contender and North Dakota State and South Dakota State join the fray, the Gateway Conference should find itself in position as the top league in the nation.

Hampton - The Pirates have emerged as the elite program in the MEAC for the past three seasons, but that status will be tested with the loss of key contributors like Justin Durant and Alonzo Coleman from a large graduating group of seniors. Joe Taylors team could use contributions from a few young players, and a recruiting class of 19 players that includes the Hampton areas offensive and defensive players of the year could be integral in the Pirates quest for a fourth straight league title.

Villanova - With four consecutive years spent sitting at home on Thanksgiving weekend, the Wildcats have matched their longest postseason drought in the Andy Talley era. They gained some momentum with wins in the final four contests to finish 6-5 a year ago, and could get in position for at least one more successful run with Talley with a 16-member recruiting class that many pegged as the best in the CAA.

Lehigh - After a 6-5 record in his first season, head coach Andy Coen takes the next step in the journey to shape his roster and re-claim the Mountain Hawks status as the premier program in the Lehigh Valley by bringing in a 29-player recruiting class that includes players from 10 different states and five players on both the offensive and defensive lines.

Appalachian State - With standouts like Armanti Edwards and Kevin Richardson back for a run at an unprecedented three-peat, the Mountaineers dont exactly need all of this years recruiting class to star in 2007. But the national champions did suffer some key losses on the defensive line, and could get some help in that area with seven defensive linemen in their 15-player recruiting class.

Coastal Carolina - Many observers (including yours truly) believe the Chanticleers have the resources to field a consistent winner and playoff contender in the FCS. With so many standouts graduating from last years playoff team, the 21 high school players (all from South Carolina, Georgia and North Carolina) that comprise the 2007 recruiting class figure to play a huge role in the continued growth and success of the program down the line.

Portland State - The head coaching and athletic director positions are vacant, but the Vikings bring back a team that can win right now after finishing 7-4 and narrowly missing the playoffs last year. Before exiting for Army last week, former head coach Tim stocked the cupboards for a playoff run with eight transfers in a 22-player recruiting class.

North Dakota State - The Bison took FCS by storm with a 10-1 record last season, and figure to be knocking on the door of playoff and even national championship contention when they become playoff eligible in 2008. This years 17-member recruiting class could play a huge role in keeping the Bison going in the right direction as they compete for playoff spots in the future.

Tennessee State - The Tigers made a huge move up the standings in head coach James Websters second season, finishing just one game off the pace with a 5-2 record in the Ohio Valley Conference. They bring back offensive stars Antonio Heffner and Javarris Williams in 2007, and also pull in a 13-player recruiting class that includes three FBS transfers on defense and highly-touted freshman quarterback Calvin McNairl.

The Citadel and Elon - The Bulldogs and Phoenix are often pegged in the final two spots in the Southern Conference picture, but both programs have prospects for a turnaround with successful former Lehigh head coaches Kevin Higgins (The Citadel) and Pete Lembo (Elon). Higgins already has The Citadel on the upswing after a 4-3 finish in Southern Conference play that included four wins in the final five games last year, and will rely on a 29-player recruiting class in 2007 to continue to take steps forward in the future. Elon was 5-6 in Lembos first campaign, and the coach brought in 22 high-school recruits to try to put his imprint on the program even further.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies  

It's that time of year folks.  Betting on American Idol Season 9.  And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below.  With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.

No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.

Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.

Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.

Odds to Win

There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.

All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.

A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.

Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.

Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol. 

Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.

If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.

Elimination Props

Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.

Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.

Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups

The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.

Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.

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