Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
09/07/2010 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Following on the heels of the establishment of 'Preakness 5.5', MI Developments (MID) announced Tuesday the creation of a similar program for the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. The 1 1/8 mile race for three-year-old fillies is the sister event to the Preakness Stakes.
Called 'Black-Eyed Susan 2.2', the bonus program could award $2 million to the winning owner of the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and $200,000 to the victorious trainer. The winning filly must qualify by capturing a series of preliminary stakes.
"My hope is that 2011 will be remembered in the sports world as the founding year of a long, successful and profitable tradition of the Preakness 5.5 and the Black-Eyed Susan 2.2," said Dennis Mills, Vice Chairman and CEO of MI Developments Inc. "The Preakness weekend is an important generator of revenue for the Maryland Jockey Club and this program, combined with the Preakness 5.5, should improve racing results across our entire racing portfolio."
There will be an AmTote Jockey Bonus worth $50,000 to the winning jockey of the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes who also rode the winner of one of the qualifying races and competed in at least one other qualifying race.
"We are delighted to expand our support of the Preakness 5.5 weekend to offer a similar prize for the Black-Eyed Susan 2.2," said Steve Keech, President of AmTote International Inc.
The tracks, all owned by MID, involved in the program are Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park, Golden Gate Fields and Portland Meadows.
At Gulfstream Park, a filly must win the Forward Gal Stakes on Saturday, January 29, 2011 plus win the Davona Dale on Saturday, February 26 and then win the Gulfstream Park Oaks on Saturday, April 2.
For Santa Anita Park runners, a horse must win the Las Virgenes on Saturday, February 5 plus win the Santa Anita Oaks on Saturday, March 5 and also win the Gulfstream Park Oaks.
The winner of Golden Gate Fields' California Oaks on New Year's Day can qualify for the bonus by going on to win the Santa Anita Oaks and Gulfstream Park Oaks.
Portland Meadows in Oregon will conduct the Portland Meadows Oaks on Saturday, January 29. The winner of that race will also qualify for the Black-Eyed Susan 2.2 if it goes on to win the Santa Anita Oaks and Gulfstream Park Oaks.
"The Portland Meadows Oaks will instantly become a significant event in the north-west racing scene as part of the Black Eyed Susan 2.2 bonus program," noted William Alempijevic, General Manager of Portland Meadows.
In addition, a consolation prize will also be offered sponsored by XpressBet, which has one for the Preakness Stakes called XpressBet .55. If the winner of the 2011 Black-Eyed Susan is not eligible for the $2.2 million bonus, the winning owner would get $200,000 and the winning trainer $20,000.
"Everyone wins," stated Ron Luniewski, President of XpressBet Inc. "The breadth of the eligibility of the consolation prize attracts the horsemen and trainers and this should result in larger fields which appeals to both our customers and race fans."
The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes is customarily run the day prior to the Preakness Stakes, the middle jewel in racing's Triple Crown. The 87th Black-Eyed Susan Stakes will be run on Friday, May 20, 2011.
<< CB Revis returns to practice with Jets
FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) - Darrelle Revis is on the practice field for the New York Jets, a day after the All-Pro cornerback signed a four-year deal that ended his 36-day holdout.Coach Rex Ryan says Revis is expected to be ready to play in the Jets'
<< Dolphins try to escape LeBron's shadow
MIAMI (AP) - Miami is the home of the Dolphin Expressway, the Dolphin Mall, the Dolphin Bar & Lounge, Dolphin Termite Services, Dolphin Used Auto Parts and Dolphin Bail Bonds.That's the way it has been in Miami for decades: Dolphins, Dolphins, D
<< 6 on the coaching hot seat
It might not be a wise choice for several NFL coaches to sit down this season. Their seats are going to be awfully hot.Winning records are advised for John Fox, Jack Del Rio, Eric Mangini, Tom Cable, Raheem Morris and Lovie Smith, or else their tenu
<< McNabb: Ankle not 100 percent, will start Sunday
WASHINGTON (AP) - Donovan McNabb says his sprained ankle won't keep him from starting for the Washington Redskins on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.McNabb told ESPN980 that his left ankle still isn't 100 percent after hurting it 2 1/2 weeks ago i
Roughriders trade OL Bates to Edmonton >>
Regina, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Saskatchewan Roughriders on Tuesday sent
offensive lineman Kelly Bates to the Edmonton Eskimos for an undisclosed 2014
draft pick.
Bates came to the Roughriders as a free agent in February, but was pl
Lithuania tops China to reach FIBA quarters >>
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Linas Kleiza poured in 30 points and
grabbed nine rebounds, leading Lithuania to a 78-67 win over China and a berth
in the quarterfinals of the 2010 FIBA World Championship.
Martynas Gecevicius add
Kelly: Prepping for Mich QB Denard tough >>
SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) -Notre Dame dealt with a mobile quarterback in beating Purdue last week. The Irish have a much bigger challenge this week.Coach Brian Kelly says there's a big difference between defending Purdue's Robert Marve, who could move i
Unexpected twist: Cincinnati's offense broken >>
CINCINNATI (AP) -An unexpected problem has Cincinnati revamping its offensive line after only one game.The Bearcats' offense evaporated during a 28-14 loss at Fresno State on Saturday night. A unit that is full of playmakers failed to score in the s
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting